Wagering explained: the honest math

Wagering requirements determine whether a bonus is profitable. Here is how they work and why they are usually the real trap.

By Maikel Slomp··5 min

Wagering is the amount you must roll over before you can withdraw a bonus or winnings. It is the single factor that turns most Dutch welcome bonuses from a gift into a mathematical cost.

The formula

The core idea is simple. A bonus has value, but you must clear it first, and while clearing it you lose money on average through the house edge.

Expected value of a bonus
EV = effective bonus − (total wagering × house edge)

The house edge above is 100% minus slot RTP. We assume a constant bet per spin and ignore variance-altering bonus features.

What does the multiplier apply to?

“30×” by itself says nothing. The multiplier can apply to different bases, and which one the casino picks decides how much money must pass through the slot.

VariantMath on €100 deposit + €100 bonusTotal wagering
Bonus only30 × €100€3,000
Bonus + deposit30 × €200€6,000
Winnings only30 × gross winVariable
Fixed amountCasino decidesOften €1,000 to €7,500

The same 30× means €3,000, €6,000 or something else, depending on the terms. Every casino page on BonusWijs calls out the variant explicitly.

Worked example

Two casinos advertise the same headline: 100% up to €100. Only the wagering differs. The outcomes diverge hard.

Low: 15× on bonus

€100 deposit · €100 bonus · 96% slot RTP

Effective bonus€100
Total wagering€1,500
Expected loss (4%)€60
EV+€40

Standard: 35× bonus + deposit

€100 deposit · €100 bonus · 96% slot RTP

Effective bonus€100
Total wagering€7,000
Expected loss (4%)€280
EV−€180

Same match bonus. One is structurally profitable, the other costs €180 on average. The gap is entirely about wagering and what it applies to.

Rules of thumb

How we use this in scoring

In our bonus calculator wagering is the heaviest lever. Set it right and the EV figure is accurate. Set it wrong (bonus only instead of bonus + deposit) and the EV looks much kinder than reality. Every casino page on BonusWijs documents which wagering variant we used, with the source. Liever iets te voorzichtig dan te optimistisch.

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